PANAPRESS
Panafrican News Agency
Niger: Polls tensions increase risk of unrest in Niamey - Think Tank
Nairobi, Kenya (PANA) - The presidential and legislative elections in Niger are likely to be closely fought amid a divided ruling party and increasing support for opposition groups, the Protection Group International (PGI) said in a report here Thursday.
Growing divisions within the military and the ruling Party for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS) have created an increasingly volatile security environment in Niger as the country approaches presidential and legislative elections on 21 February.
President Mahamadou Issoufou's PNDS expects him to win the election outright in the first round, as the opposition support is spread thinly among 14 candidates, while one of the opposition front-runners, Hama Amadou, is in jail on baby-trafficking offences, says the report.
In the likely event that President Issoufou is re-elected, his next term will witness frequent demonstrations against pervasive corruption and poor living standards, while long-running tensions with the armed forces mean there will remain a risk of a military takeover in the longer term.
However, the ruling coalition faces internal divisions that could undermine its ability to mobilise supporters, particularly after former Transport Minister and minor coalition partner Amadou Boubacar Cisse accused Issoufou of seeking to impose himself as the sole ruling coalition election candidate.
President Issoufou is accused of leaving the coalition with his UDR-Tabbat party in September 2015. Cisse’s departure, which was followed by an announcement that he would stand in the forthcoming election, drew an angry response from the president, the thin tank says.
PNDS will also face strong opposition from both Seyni Oumarou’s National Movement for Society and Development (MNSD-Nassara), and jailed opposition leader Hama Amadou, who leads the popular Moden-Fa Lumana opposition party.
"A more serious threat to stability stems from persistent divisions within the military that have amplified as the volatile election period draws closer,'' says the group.
In mid-December 2015, the government claimed to have foiled a coup in Niamey and arrested four senior military officers, including former chief of staff Gen. Salou Souleymane, and the commander of the air base in Niamey, Col. Dan Haoua.
"The incident was indicative of growing discontent within the military and follows an earlier coup attempt in 2011 that failed to dislodge Issoufou, and another in 2010 that resulted in the ouster of his predecessor Mamadou Tandja," says PGI.
According to the government, the dissidents arrested in Niamey in December were attempting to use the country’s aerial firepower to seize control of the country, while they had also raided the PNDS headquarters in the capital on 14 December, killing one police officer guarding the building.
Amid this volatile political and security context, there is a strong risk of civil unrest during and after the election.
-0- PANA DJ/VAO 21Jan2016
Growing divisions within the military and the ruling Party for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS) have created an increasingly volatile security environment in Niger as the country approaches presidential and legislative elections on 21 February.
President Mahamadou Issoufou's PNDS expects him to win the election outright in the first round, as the opposition support is spread thinly among 14 candidates, while one of the opposition front-runners, Hama Amadou, is in jail on baby-trafficking offences, says the report.
In the likely event that President Issoufou is re-elected, his next term will witness frequent demonstrations against pervasive corruption and poor living standards, while long-running tensions with the armed forces mean there will remain a risk of a military takeover in the longer term.
However, the ruling coalition faces internal divisions that could undermine its ability to mobilise supporters, particularly after former Transport Minister and minor coalition partner Amadou Boubacar Cisse accused Issoufou of seeking to impose himself as the sole ruling coalition election candidate.
President Issoufou is accused of leaving the coalition with his UDR-Tabbat party in September 2015. Cisse’s departure, which was followed by an announcement that he would stand in the forthcoming election, drew an angry response from the president, the thin tank says.
PNDS will also face strong opposition from both Seyni Oumarou’s National Movement for Society and Development (MNSD-Nassara), and jailed opposition leader Hama Amadou, who leads the popular Moden-Fa Lumana opposition party.
"A more serious threat to stability stems from persistent divisions within the military that have amplified as the volatile election period draws closer,'' says the group.
In mid-December 2015, the government claimed to have foiled a coup in Niamey and arrested four senior military officers, including former chief of staff Gen. Salou Souleymane, and the commander of the air base in Niamey, Col. Dan Haoua.
"The incident was indicative of growing discontent within the military and follows an earlier coup attempt in 2011 that failed to dislodge Issoufou, and another in 2010 that resulted in the ouster of his predecessor Mamadou Tandja," says PGI.
According to the government, the dissidents arrested in Niamey in December were attempting to use the country’s aerial firepower to seize control of the country, while they had also raided the PNDS headquarters in the capital on 14 December, killing one police officer guarding the building.
Amid this volatile political and security context, there is a strong risk of civil unrest during and after the election.
-0- PANA DJ/VAO 21Jan2016
