Middle East war could plunge 32 million people into poverty, warns UNDP
New York, US (PANA) - The war that has been raging in the Middle East since late February could plunge 32 million people into poverty in 162 countries, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned on Monday.
The impact is obviously stronger in countries located at the heart of or near the fighting, but in the long term, the damage can also be considerable in countries further away from conflict zones.
The new analysis by the UN agency shows that the shock caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is not limited to the countries directly affected, but disproportionately affects those with the most limited budgetary leeway to absorb the rise in energy and food prices.
For these countries, the crisis forces impossible trade-offs between stabilising prices today and financing health, education and employment tomorrow.
“War sets back development: in a few weeks, a conflict can wipe out what countries have built up over the years,” said Alexander De Croo, UNDP Administrator.
Although a ceasefire has been announced, the impact of the war, which has already lasted six weeks, has shifted from an "acute" phase to a "sustained" one. The longer this phase lasts, the greater the risk of rapidly worsening poverty in vulnerable countries.
In the worst-case scenario, 32 million people could fall into poverty. Half of the global increase in poverty is concentrated in the group of 37 net energy-importing countries.
While advanced economies are able to cushion the effects of energy shocks, countries in the Gulf region, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and small island developing states (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable.
In the Arab States region, for example, simulations suggest that nearly 4 million more people could be pushed into poverty in high-intensity conflict scenarios.
The rise in poverty rates is concentrated in the Levant and in fragile countries (Sudan and Yemen), where basic vulnerability is highest and where shocks translate more strongly into losses of well-being.
The UNDP anticipates a decline in GDP of 3.7 to 6%, or a contraction of $120 to $194 billion, concentrated in the sub-regions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Levant.
In Africa, economies and households are already affected, calling for a swift and effective policy response. Twenty-nine currencies have depreciated, increasing the cost of servicing external debt and imports of food, fuel, and fertilizers.
Disruptions to the Gulf's energy supply threaten access to ammonia and urea during the planting season (March-May), potentially reducing agricultural production and exacerbating emergency food insecurity, especially in low-income households and import-dependent economies.
The UNDP proposes measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict in the most affected countries, including targeted and temporary cash transfers, the first line of defence to protect poor and vulnerable households.
Depending on the scenario that materialises, $6 billion could be needed to ensure the effectiveness of this measure.
The UNDP, on the other hand, advises against widespread energy subsidies, which mainly benefit the wealthiest households and are financially unsustainable in the long term.
-0- PANA MA 14April2026
