Haftar threatens to resort to arms, risking return to war in Libya

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - With the political stalemate in Libya persisting since the postponement of last December's elections, the head of the eastern-based Libyan National Army, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, has issued new threats to resort to arms and wage "a decisive battle to liberate the country".

A new media outing that comes in a series of public appearances whose timing and scope are subject to questions as to whether this war rhetoric reflects a risk of triggering a new war or whether it is an attempt to reposition himself on the Libyan political scene after the military defeat in the summer of 2020 after his attack against Tripoli.

This situation comes at a time when UN mediation efforts are being revived with the arrival of the new Special Representative of the UN Secretary General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Abdoulaye Bathily.

Indeed, since 2020, Marshal Haftar has made a long journey through the desert following the military setback, apparently keeping him out of the spotlight of current events and political action.

This adventure, the consequences of which were not calculated because of the heavy toll in terms of human lives, injuries, material damage, and tragedies suffered by civilians as well as the deterioration of the social fabric, caused the warlord, Haftar, to lose his social base and the support of a large fringe of tribes in the eastern region.

Even the alliance he forged with former Interior Minister Fathi Bachagha, whom he helped to be appointed by Parliament as Prime Minister of the government, and through which, according to his detractors, he intended to gain access to the capital by entering through the "window after being expelled through the door", did not achieve the expected results.

Having failed to settle in Tarik Al-Sekka, the seat of the Prime Minister's office in Tripoli, Mr Bachagha suffered the same fate as previous parallel governments, with no international recognition, no access to financial institutions such as the Central Bank and the Libyan National Oil Company, located in the capital, and a military defeat that led to the expulsion of armed groups sympathetic to him from the Libyan capital, which is now entirely under the control of his rival, Prime Minister Abdelhamid Al-Dbaiba.

The commander of the Libyan National Army General Command forces, Marshal Haftar, has demanded the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libyan lands, saying, "if peaceful efforts fail, we will wage a decisive battle to liberate the country," according to media outlets affiliated with him, as quoted by the Al-Wasat newspaper.

"We will move forward in accordance with the will of the Libyan people, after all previous paths have led us to a dead end and disappointing results," Haftar added during a visit to the central region of Al-Jufra, a town that is home to an air base where mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group are based.

He said that "time is not in the interest of the parties who seek to manage the crisis without resolving it in order to prolong its life with futile pretexts and suspicious initiatives," considering that the Libyan scene is "witnessing a growing popular movement to bring about a radical change.

Welcoming the new UN envoy to Libya, Bathily, whom he met, Haftar called on him "not to take any initiative to solve the crisis if it does not come from the Libyan people".

He noted, in this regard, that "Libyans can only rely on themselves, to decide their fate with our free will, with all our appreciation for all local and international efforts".

Haftar added, furthermore, that "experiences have proven that any solution or comprehensive initiative will not succeed without the approval of the Libyan people," affirming that "the General Command urges the Libyan people to stick to the right of self-determination and not to rely on foreign agendas".

However, he qualified this by saying: "We do not call for war, but rather we are apostles of peace and cooperation between peoples, in order to achieve progress and prosperity for them... But the one who calls for war is the one who sent his soldiers and mercenaries to our land, hoping for our wealth, taking advantage of what our country is going through, the emergency circumstances, to make shameful deals with traitors and agents."

Haftar's visit to Al-Jufra comes after a visit to the southern city of Sebha on 17 October, during which he attended a military parade of a number of units of the Libyan army forces and units in the southern region, as part of a series of tours he has undertaken in some cities recently.

Haftar's media outbursts and thinly veiled threats come in the context of the new situation in Libya. First, at the internal level, the agreement between the Speaker of the parliament, Aguila Saleh, and the chairman of the High Council of State, Khaled Al-Mechri, to fill the regal posts of the Libyan state, to unite the executive power by early 2023 and to work towards the organization of parliamentary and presidential elections as soon as possible, represents a slap in the face for Haftar.

This deal definitively excludes the Prime Minister of the government appointed by the parliament, Bachagha, from the race, which represents a new major obstacle to the return of Haftar, who is accused of wanting at all costs to inherit his children who are his emissaries and negotiators in all political talks and dialogue.

In addition, Haftar risks being left out of the presidential election race if the draft constitutional basis on which the High State Council voted on Wednesday is endorsed by parliament and serves as a legal framework for the polls.

Indeed, the member of the High State Council, Naima Al-Hami, said in a statement to the TV channel "Libya Al-Ahrar" that they agreed on the articles of the constitutional rule that the presidential candidate should not possess the nationality of another country and that the military should not run for elections before one year after their resignation.

Al-Hami added that anyone in a high position must resign from their position, not from their job, whether civilian or military. These clauses represent an obstacle in front of Haftar who is both military and has the American nationality which puts him out of the presidential race, especially since, according to the president of the High State Council, there is an option to resort to a popular referendum on the points of disagreement with the parliament, namely, the eligibility of dual nationals and military.

According to observers, this referendum alternative will also be fatal because the overwhelming majority of Libyans are opposed to bi-nationals taking over the reins of power in the country.

At the external level, the new UN Representative has started since 15 October to relaunch mediation efforts through meetings with the various Libyan parties to find a consensual solution leading to elections as soon as possible on the basis of a solid constitutional rule.

Thus, Mr Bathily is moving towards a meeting between the two Presidents of the Chambers in Libya to accelerate the achievement of an agreement on a legal framework.

The latest UN Security Council resolution, extending UNSMIL's mandate by one year and rejecting war as a means of resolving the crisis in Libya, called for an agreement between the parliament and the High Council of State as soon as possible on a constitutional basis as well as the establishment of a unified executive controlling the whole country to oversee the elections.

This situation mainly serves the interests of Haftar, who sees his chances of being part of a solution to the crisis dwindling, which will exclude him from the political arena in the future, even though he still has assets with the military control he exercises over large parts of Libya.

Moreover, the agreements signed by Turkey with Libya, whether it is the agreement on maritime delimitation zones concluded in 2019 or the memorandum of understanding on hydrocarbons in 2022 and the defence agreement to strengthen the air force capabilities of the government of national unity, are perceived by Egypt, Haftar's main ally, as hostile actions towards him and vehemently opposed.

Moreover, this will have been worth the interruption of collaboration and arrangements between Cairo and Ankara on the Libyan file, according to the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Choukry.

In addition, the visit of the head of Egyptian intelligence, Kamel Abbas to Haftar in Benghazi (east) to dissuade him, according to behind-the-scenes indiscretions, to normalize with Turkey, contributed to the change of tone adopted by the Libyan marshal.

Haftar is also affected by the rapprochement operated by the United Arab Emirates, his military ally, who had provided him with arms and political support for his military campaign against Tripoli, with the government of national unity in the west of the country.

This is, according to analysts, a great loss that has considerably reduced Haftar's capacity to cause harm at the military and political level in the context of Russia's bogging down in its armed conflict with Ukraine.

This has affected the presence of mercenaries of the Wagner Group, whose presence has been lightened and who have left for other war zones, particularly in Africa, notably in the Central African Republic, Mali and soon in Burkina Faso.

All these factors have undoubtedly had an effect on Haftar, who is currently trying by all means to restore his image and cling to a lifeline.

This loss of speed of Hafter has become perceptible in his traditional stronghold in the region of Berga (Cyrenaica) where more and more voices are raised to challenge his leadership and have not forgiven him for the death of their sons and relatives sent to the war in Tripoli.

Calls for a revolution to unseat Marshal Haftar have been growing in recent days and a hashtag calling for an uprising on 11 November has been spreading on social networks.

Of course, the chances of success of this action will be minimal but it will serve as a warning of the citizens' frustration with him and especially that the option of war can not provide a solution in Libya as past experiences have proven.

-0- PANA BY/IS/BBA/RA 3Nov2022