10 trends shaping global trade in 2026

Geneva, Switzerland (PANA) - Slower growth, rising protectionism and structural shifts in value chains, services and regulation are redefining trade flows, creating new risks and opportunities.

Global trade had a record year in 2025, with preliminary data pointing to a 7% increase to exceed $35 trillion for the first time. While growth is expected to remain positive in 2026, the pace will slow.

UN Trade and Development’s first trade update of the year points to a more complex and fragmented global environment. Geopolitical tensions, shifting supply chains, accelerating digital and green transitions and tighter national regulations are reshaping trade flows and global value chains.

The January Global Trade Update highlights ten trends shaping global trade in 2026 – and the policies and actions needed to help countries navigate change and seize emerging opportunities.

1. Global growth slows, weighing on developing economies
Global economic growth is projected to remain subdued at 2.6% in 2026, with developing economies excluding China slowing to 4.2%.

Major economies are also losing momentum:

United States: growth projected to slow to 1.5%, from 1.8% in 2025.
China: growth expected at 4.6%, down from 5%.
Europe: Fiscal stimulus offers limited support, while demand will remain modest.
-0-PANA RA 15Jan2026