Unravelling the fragility trap in Central African Republic civil war: World Bank Blog By Pierre Mandon and Vincent Nossek
Bangui, Central African Republic (PANA) - Rebuilding the social contract between the government and its citizens is essential for the Central African Republic (CAR)’s recovery and long-term stability.
The country has been trapped in a cycle of violence and fragility for over a decade, with devastating consequences for its people and economy. This post explores the findings of our new study using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to assess the conflict's economic impact and highlights potential pathways to recovery and growth in countries like CAR.
A Civil War with Deep Economic Wounds
Since gaining independence in 1960, CAR has encountered instability, governance challenges, and persistent poverty. The civil war that began in December 2012 has deepened these issues.
Using SCM, we measured the economic toll of the conflict by comparing CAR’s GDP trajectory with a "synthetic CAR" — a model based on data from similar countries without conflict.
The 'treatment' year is 2012 with the beginning of the civil war up to the departure of Séléka rebel coalition from Bangui (from December 2012 to January 2014). The subsequent period translates into localised conflicts in northwestern and eastern parts of the country, outside of major cities.
The findings indicate a significant economic decline from 2013 to 2022, with CAR's GDP per capita falling by 45.3 percent to 47.8 percent compared to the synthetic control, leading to a cumulative GDP loss of $29.7 billion to $32.4 billion. Even under conservative estimates, the economy shrank by 35.3 percent – one of the highest economic impacts of civil conflict recorded globally.
A key reason for this severe economic impact is the disruption of vital trade routes. The war, particularly during the Séléka occupation of Bangui, crippled the Douala-Bangui Road axis and the river corridor from Pointe-Noire to the port of Bangui. Additionally, the war caused widespread destruction of capital stock and severely limited fiscal capacity to maintain infrastructure. The long-term deterioration of the country’s technical capacity, affecting both the private sector and government administration, further contributed to the economic downturn.
Breaking the Fragility Trap
This sharp economic decline reflects the urgent need for CAR to free itself from the "fragility trap", a concept, explored in the latest Country Economic Memorandum (CEM). It suggests that fragile states like CAR experience a vicious cycle where political instability, weak institutions, and violence reinforce each other. Understanding this cycle is crucial for breaking it and achieving sustainable development.
The SCM results showed that the 2012 civil war exacerbated CAR’s structural vulnerabilities. Beyond the GDP loss, the conflict has led to widespread ethnic cleansing, including extrajudicial killings, rape, and massive forced internal and international displacement according to OHCHR.
SCM: A Cutting-Edge Tool in Conflict Economics
Various techniques have been used to measure the economic costs of conflicts, but SCM has emerged as a revolutionary tool in this field. First proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), SCM was initially used to assess the economic consequences of local conflicts. Since then, SCM has been widely applied to quantify the economic toll of various conflicts and revolts. From civil wars in Burundi and Ukraine to the Arab Spring in Libya and Tunisia, this methodology has become a powerful statistical tool for program evaluation and causal inference.
What sets SCM apart is its robustness in small sample settings, a common issue in conflict studies where data is limited. SCM excels in these environments by constructing a synthetic control group that mirrors the pre-conflict trends and characteristics of the affected country—in this case, CAR. By doing so, SCM provides more accurate causal inferences and offers a clearer picture of the conflict's true economic impact.
Next Steps Towards Recovery
While the study presents a robust analysis of the economic impacts, understanding the full extent of the war's effects on CAR’s economy, more specifically on industries such as construction, manufacturing, and human development at a granular level will require further study.
Addressing these challenges requires better data collection, combining household surveys with alternative sources like remote sensing. Such efforts would provide critical insights into the socio-economic impacts of the conflict beyond the national GDP loss, allowing for more targeted policy interventions.
Rebuilding the social contract between the government and its citizens is essential for CAR’s recovery and long-term stability. By focusing on resilience and leveraging innovative tools like SCM and remote sensing for better monitoring, there is hope for CAR to overcome its challenges and build a more stable and prosperous future.
-0- PANA AR/MA 3Dec2024
